Bitcoin is now just under the $100k psychological number.
In our last Crypto Piece (found here), we called for another leg up from the $90k region and that’s exactly what unfolded.
Our next call is for a pierce of the $100k level with price reaching around $102.9k, which is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from late-2021 high to late-2022 low.
After that we’re very likely to get a meaningful pullback that should present an attractive buy-the-dip opportunity.
However, IF Bitcoin starts pulling back from here itself, then we’ll be looking at $91.5k region for support and if that breaks then around $86.5k.
Ethereum Analysis
Ethereum has also been moving higher swiftly and is now making a run at the $3550 resistance level.
If $3550 is broken, then $4k is our next upside area of interested followed by a run to new ATHs.
We’re still sticking to our call of new ATHs for Ethereum that we made back when ETH was sub-2000, and everyone was calling it dead.
Intermarket Analysis – US Dollar ($DXY)
The one factor that has surprised us is the persisting strength in the US Dollar index ($DXY).
$DXY has unexpectedly broken past the $107.3 resistance level on Friday. Whether this breakout holds or ends up being a deviation is yet to be seen. The latter would be confirmed if $DXY closes back below the $107.3 level.
In an ideal case scenario, this ends up being a deviation, which would then trigger a big risk-on move.
However, we’ll have a much better sense by the end of next week.
Google Search Trend
One thing is for sure, retail has started showing up now.
The Google trend for “Crypto” has started moving higher, indicating increasing interest.
While current level is not worrying by any means, this is one of the sentiment signals that we’ll be continually monitor going forward to help us take profit during the extreme euphoria stage.
Right now, we’re at the stage where Bitcoin has run-up aggressively and retail has started showing up. Typically, from around here an altseason starts unfolding as capital rotates from Bitcoin to smaller coins and retail begins chasing.
Altcoin Index
This potential altseason that we’re talking about can also be seen through the Altcoin index.
The chart below shows the percentage of top 50 cryptos by market cap (excluding stablecoins) that outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
We’ve now come off of the Bitcoin season and are slowly making our way higher to an altcoin season, something that we expect to fully set in by late-Dec/early-Jan.
In the next section, we’ll look at:
1) Our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum to provide a Timing Edge
2) The altcoin market
3) 3 attractive altcoin setups that are set to Make Money
4) 2 Crypto-related stocks
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