Bitcoin: Major Bottom or Trap?
Note: I’m going to be very concise in this article to only highlight what really matters.
Investors are still of the opinion that Bitcoin cannot bottom before October 2026, based on the 4-year Cycle, and there’s much more downside remaining.
Back in 2022, the consensus social media number was $12k for a macro bottom on Bitcoin because of which investors missed the actual bottom.
Today, the new “$12k” is “$40k-$50k” and we believe waiting for this number is going to once again wrong-foot investors.
We’ve already seen a lot of excess leverage and speculation cleaned up from the Bitcoin system
Not only has Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) done a full 180-degree on his “We’ll NEVER sell Bitcoin” motto, but Bitcoin Treasury companies have been hit left-right-and-center.
We’re also seeing technical and on-chain signals flash that have historically occurred only at or very close to a macro bottom on Bitcoin.
For starters, the 50-week EMA crossing below the 100-week EMA.
This has only happened 3 other times since 2013: Two of them marked a macro bottom and the third one (2022) saw price fall slightly lower because of a black swan event (FTX collapse) before the macro bottom.
Secondly, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit has dipped below 50%, which has systematically only happened during a macro bottoming process.
Lastly, the supply of Bitcoin in loss recently hit 10.8 million.
Above the 10.5 million threshold is where all of the past major Bitcoin bottoms have formed.
So just because some “time” factor hasn’t been met based on the 4-year Bitcoin Cycle, investors are ignoring ALL the other evidences that’s telling us that Bitcoin has either already put in a macro bottom OR is one last dip away from doing so.
In the next section, we’ll show you a very interesting chart that’s indicating which one of the two is more likely.
Then, we’ll cover Ethereum.
And finally, we’ll figure out when and how to position in Altcoins to prepare before the crowd arrives - here I’m going to also share the exact strategy you can use to evaluate any Altcoin at any moment.
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