Bitcoin Run Is NOT Over… Yet – Crypto Piece
$47k Incoming
Note: We recently launched a new product called “Cycle Forecasts”. For those members that missed it, you can find the introductory article here. Now back to Cryptos!
Sentiment in the crypto market had begun to turn overly bullish, which was met by a flash crash (read: liquidation cascade) earlier this week. Crypto fear and greed index is showing elevated levels of greed. While this is not a timing tool in and of itself, it does suggest that the current run requires some cooling off soon.
Bitcoin is still sitting above the $41.2k region despite the flash crash. This region is going to be important to hold for the next leg up. This next leg could reach anywhere between the $47k to $50.5k and will very likely be the final leg up before a deeper and longer correction occurs.
Cycles Turn On 7th January 2024
On 12th Dec we released our new product “Cycle Forecasts”. The below Cycle is taken from that product as a sample of what can be expected from the product. Cycles show that Bitcoin still has upside left in the coming weeks, but the time is limited. The Cycles Composite (blue line), which is our “Secret Sauce”, points to 7th January 2024 being the turning point for Bitcoin to the downside. This gives us exactly 23 days before the probability of a deeper correction increases significantly. To look at the Bitcoin Cycle Forecast for Q1 2024, please look at our Cycle Forecasts product. More information about it can be found on https://cyclesedge.substack.com/p/introducing-our-new-product-cycle
Ethereum Battling Resistance At $2300
Ethereum has been battling the $2300 (highlighted in our previous Crypto Piece found here) after a good run from $2100. In our opinion, a break above this region is not a matter of “if” but a matter of “when”. The next resistance level comes in at $2500. If this is broken, then the major resistance zone between $3300 to $3550 comes into play. It is likely that Ethereum hits this resistance zone prior to a deeper retracement, especially given the bullish posturing seen from the 9, 21 and 55 EMAs.
ETH/BTC Ratio
A strong Ethereum typically bodes well for the altcoin market. Ethereum relative to Bitcoin is still hovering around the value zone, which is an attractive level to rotate capital from Bitcoin into Ethereum and other altcoins. Even a move to the first resistance level at 0.0596 would result in a 10% outperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
Is It Altseason Yet?
Kind of, but not a full-blown one yet. Some altcoins have been going off on big runs (like $LINK, $AVAX, $ADA), while others are still lagging (like $BNB and $XRP). The altcoin indicator (courtesy of Blockchaincenter.net) is at 51. A full-blown altseason is when this index surpasses 75. However, with each passing day, the likelihood of a full-blown altseason is increasing and we’re positive that the time for it is just around the corner.
Money Making Setups
Bitcoin miners are an aspect that we haven’t covered in the past but provide a good beta play on Bitcoin. A lot of these miners are looking very attractive from a trading perspective and even from an investing perspective.
1. Marathon Digital Holdings ($MARA)
$MARA is setting up an inverse head and shoulder pattern, which is a typical reversal pattern. A break below the neckline at $18.85 would confirm a breakout. Initial resistance would come in around $32.22 region, but the pattern target lies at $108.58. This would provide more around a 6x return for those willing to hold this name. Even though $MARA looks very attractive, there’s another miner that looks even more attractive. This is none other than…
