Crude Oil & Oil Stocks - Quick Note
Setups for CL, XLE, XOM, CVX & FANG
Crude Oil (CL): Crude Oil peaked on April 5th, 2024 and suffered a 12% drop from there. Bolstered oil prices were driven by headline news regarding turmoil in the Middle East. Since then the news has appeared to cool off. The Intermediate Cycle for oil is quite variable and ranges from 15 to 23 weeks. The recent best-fit cycle is 107 trading days or 21.4 weeks. If this holds true then we could be looking at a bottom for oil coming up in the next few days, where the cycle bracket shows a 5/15 trough. We would look for signs of strength before buying in.
The technical picture is mixed at best. On the positive side, the decline stopped (so far) at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of the uptrend that began on 12/13/23. This may be the low for the cycle. The MACD indicator is showing waning bearishness. On the negative side, the price is below the 9, 21 and 55 EMAs, signifying that the trend is down, and below the Ichimoku Cloud, signifying that there is a lot of supply/resistance. RSI is below 50, telling us that there is no strength yet.
Now let’s look at the cycle chart:
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