Crypto Pullback Is Here – Crypto Piece
Journey To $100k For Bitcoin
Bitcoin has finally seen a pullback after taking out its previous all-time highs. This is a very tricky situation, so we’re going to play it level by level. IF $69k is reclaimed, then this was the dip and the run continues. However, until that happens, the 2 downside areas of interest are the $57k region and $53k region. Remember, Bitcoin typically has a pullback heading into its halving (expected next month), with a left-translated cycle OR a Supercycle (the reasoning highlighted in this article), we can’t rule anything out at this point.
However, in the long-term, things are very much intact. Very people know this, but the 56-day chart of Bitcoin lines up extremely well with the LMACD (momentum indicator) to help locate tops and bottoms within a 1 to 2 months accuracy period. Currently, we’re very much in a long-term uptrend, and Bitcoin is very likely to cross $100k this bull cycle (FINALLY!). When the time comes, we’ll first update our paid members on when the LMACD channel signals a top.
Intermarket Analysis
An area of concern, however, is the USD index ($DXY) that has reclaimed its mid-range. This is a chart to keep a close eye on because a confirmation of the reclaim would signal that Bitcoin likely pulls back further, but a fake reclaim would signal that Bitcoin begins its next leg up.
Ethereum Mania
Ethereum recently went on an absolute tear going from $2500 to the resistance level around $3991 in just a few weeks, and has since pulled back. It’s currently sitting in the support zone between $3300 and $3550. If this holds, then expect the next leg up to target the previous all-time highs around $4873, albeit with minor pullbacks. However, if Bitcoin continues to pullback, then Ethereum could retest its $2977 support level, which we think is likely to hold.
Ethereum Relative To Bitcoin
Despite Ethereum’s run, ETH/BTC ratio has broken its uptrend and is now back in the value zone. This has been a frustrating outcome for people expecting a full-blown altseason, but we were always in the camp that this will be a mini-altseason (which has held true so far). This was primarily due to the next chart in the article. On a side note, we still believe that Ethereum is the better bet than Bitcoin in this point of the Crypto bull cycle.
The reason we believe that we’re only seeing a mini-altseason right now and the REAL one is yet to come (most likely later this year) is cause of the chart below. This is going to be available to our paid members in the upcoming section. We’re also going to take a look at Bitcoin’s Cycles Forecast and a couple of key Bitcoin equity names (CleanSpark $CLSK and Coinbase $COIN).
We’re also about to release our Q2 2024 Cycles Forecast for multiple different asset classes and equity names. The introductory article for the quarterly Cycles Forecast can be found here, and we’ll have another detailed article for the release coming out soon. Please note that our Founding Members have now been emailed these Cycles Forecasts (the full deck covering every name!). If you would like your copy earlier, please consider upgrading to a Founding Member status on our Substack.