Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?
Crypto Update
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Bitcoin is up around 35% from its Feb 2026 bottom.
Price is now testing the 200-day EMA (green line), with the daily Supertrend bullish + the 9, 21, and 55-EMAs all sloping up.
The question of the mind of Crypto investors is whether the Bitcoin bottom is in?
After all, Bitcoin tends to deliver some of the highest returns when it’s in an uptrend.
So catching a near-bottom entry provides an incredible Money Making opportunity on this asset.
The key development we’re watching right now is whether Bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day EMA without forming a deviation move.
If Bitcoin does reclaim this level, then the odds of a bottom being in is quite high.
But a deviation would very likely lead to a retest/undercut of the recent lows, like the black line drawn in the chart below.
We tend to lean towards the latter here, reasons for which we’ll outline in this article.
One of the most important charts for the Crypto market’s state is the stablecoin dominance (we’re primarily using USDT and USDC).
This shows the share of the total crypto market that are made up on stablecoins.
When it rises, it suggests that capital is rotating into stablecoins (bearish for Crypto). And the opposite also holds true.
As we can see, stablecoin dominance rejected from the 11.88% and is coming closer to support.
The key region to break below is the 9.3-8.78% range, which would also be a break below the 200-day EMA.
But as it stands, this chart looks to be in just a pullback rather than a reversal for now, indicating that there’s still more pressure to come for the Crypto market.
This is also one of the reasons Ethereum hasn’t really been seeing as strong a bid and hasn’t even made it to the 200-day EMA.
To be clear, we’re extremely constructive on Ethereum, but we’re also not naive to believe a weak bounce.
All the key levels for Ethereum are marked on the chart below.
From it, we believe the single most important resistance region to reclaim is the $2800 to $2913 - that would suggest that Ethereum is very much ready for another battle around the $4000 level.
However, our opinion right now based on Bitcoin and stablecoin dominance is that there’s a potential retest or undercut of lows in the works that would very likely form the actual bottom (potentially a double bottom pattern).
Such a move would be an incredible buying opportunity to pick up Ethereum at a significant discount, especially with the upside potential it holds.
Between Ethereum and Bitcoin, we very much favor Ethereum to outperform during the actual Crypto bull run.
In the short-term though, if the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio breaks below the dotted support, then there’s a possibility that the ratio falls by another 10% or so (indicating Ethereum underperformance).
However, we don’t think this ratio would fall too much deeper than that.
We’ve already seen the type of reset that precedes major bottoms on ETH.
This chart shows the percentage of ETH supply in profit, and it’s fallen to levels seen in 2018, 2020, late-2022, and April 2025.
All of these saw ETH enter an accumulation phase before delivering strong returns.
We believe Ethereum is setting up for something similar, but for that to happen we’ve historically needed Bitcoin to enter an uptrend.
So how long more should we expect Bitcoin to take to put in a major bottom and what signs should we be looking for?
That’s exactly what we cover in the next section, along with providing you our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for BTC and ETH to give you a True Timing Edge.
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