It’s NOT Over – Crypto Piece
The Crypto Bull Run Is Still Left
A lot of people, especially on Crypto Twitter, are calling for the end of the Crypto bull run. But we’re not of the same opinion. Remember, when in doubt, zoom out. That’s exactly what we’ll do in this article – look at the bigger picture. We’ll also give you a timeline of when you can expect the uptrend to resume. Let’s dive in!
Bitcoin Bigger Picture
This is one of the simplest charts to debunk the thesis of people calling for the Bitcoin bull run top to be in. On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin has been holding its 9-EMA extremely well. The monthly MACD remains bullish and the monthly RSI still has room for upside to either make another high OR form a potential bearish RSI divergence (if price makes a higher high, but the RSI does not). Either way, the past few months of consolidation has caused a time capitulation for a lot of Crypto investors who are now calling for a Bitcoin top – classic Bitcoin!
Bitcoin has been having a tricky time crossing above its down sloping resistance line, which currently sits at $69.5k. This will be the key level to close on a weekly candle to trigger a breakout.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has retested (with a large down wick) the 55-EMA. The weekly RSI has been reset and still rests in the bullish control zone, whereas, the weekly MACD has had a full reset now.
Although a retest of the 55-EMA on the weekly timeframe is possible (not probable), it’s important to have the weekly close above it to avoid a potential break of the bullish consolidation. This means that bulls have to ensure that the weekly candles close above $52.5k (current level of 55-EMA on the weekly timeframe). The key level to reclaim on a weekly closing basis is $62k – then it’s game on!
Ethereum Bigger Picture
Ethereum has done quite a shakeout following its ETF launch, but on the weekly timeframe the capitulation wick down was just a test of its key uptrend line that began in late-2022 – not your typical end of bull cycle move. The weekly RSI has been reset and is at levels from where the Oct 2023 rally began. Even the weekly MACD has seen a full reset, but the bulls wouldn’t want to see the MACD drop much lower from current levels.
It is possible (not probable) that there’s one more flush left for ETH, which would likely fill in part/whole of the down wick that was formed during the early August capitulation. However, it is very important for ETH to maintain its weekly candle closes above $2100 support and ideally above $2150 (uptrend line). IF this flush does happen, then it would present a ‘not to miss’ buying opportunity.
In order for a sign of strength, a weekly candle close above $2800 (55-EMA on the weekly timeframe) would be the first signal. Then comes $2900 and $3050 in order to reclaim the 9 and 21-EMAs respectively. Once ETH reclaims $3050 on a weekly candle closing basis, then a move back to $3950 should be relatively smooth and quick.
Intermarket Dynamics – USD ($DXY)
One major tailwind that’s been brewing is the weakness in USD ($DXY), which has broken below the mid-range level of 103.5 and is making its way to the range low at 100.84. On the higher timeframes (especially monthly), $DXY is looking quite weak. So, we won’t be surprised if in the coming weeks $DXY ends up breaking range lows to head even lower.
Key On-Chain Metric: MVRV Z-Score
Here’s another solid on-chain evidence showing that the Crypto bull cycle top is still not in. The MVRV Z-Score is a metric used primarily in the to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its "fair value" Red zone is where BTC bull run tops happen. But we're haven’t even gotten close to that range this cycle, indicating that there’s quite a bit of room left for prices to run-up.
Now that we’ve outlined the bigger picture and shown how the overall uptrend is still intact, it is time to take a look at the expected timing of the resumption of the uptrend. We’re going to use 2 methods for that: Fractal and our proprietary Cycle Forecasts. That’s exactly what we’ll cover in the next section for our Paid Members. Lastly, we’ll also go over 2 Bitcoin Miner stocks for those interested in getting a higher beta exposure to the next up move for Bitcoin.
The Million Dollar Fractal