July Cycle Forecasts
NOTE: We have officially released our Q3 2025 Cycle Forecasts for sale on our website at cyclesedge.com. You can find out more about what these Forecasts contain here. These Cycle Forecasts are aimed at giving you a Timing Edge in the market, to help you catch the big moves up and down!
The Summer Rally arrived early, but it’s starting to look a bit overheated. The S&P 500 (SPY) has climbed nearly 4.5% since June 20th and may need a short breather to digest those gains. As long as SPY holds above the 10-day EMA (green), currently near $610, the rally remains intact—even if we see a 1–3 day pause or pullback. With the MACD above zero and Net New Highs expanding, this remains a Swing Traders’ Market where stock picking continues to work. The McClellan Breadth Oscillator confirms bullish momentum, and the VIX keeps trending lower. Overall, conditions remain supportive for the rally to continue.
The NYSE Advance/Decline Line is pushing new highs, however the RSI is at overbought levels and is vulnerable to a pullback. The MACD however just made a bullish crossover, so the trend will probably continue higher, despite possible short-term fluctuations.
The Nasdaq 100 Stocks Above the 5 SMA ($NDFD) is at overbought levels. A flush lower would set up a better risk/reward for new equity positions.
Similarly the Nasdaq 100 Stocks Above the 20 SMA ($NDTW) is also at the overbought level.
Smart Money, which began to buy a few days ago, is now waiting for lower prices to add exposure. Meanwhile Dumb Money continues to pour money into equity markets at overbought levels. A pullback that finds institutional buyers would be quite healthy for this rally to continue.
Meanwhile the Greed Grind continues. A bout of short-term fear would be very healthy for this market so investors could buy at a discount.
In the Premium Section we’ll go over July Cycle Forecasts for our Main Asset Classes (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, TLT, GLD, SLV, Oil and BTC).
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