October Is For Bitcoin Bulls
Bitcoin Attempting A Move To $30k
Bitcoin recently rejected at the 200-day SMA (green line) that currently sits at $28,030. However, for the first time since June 2023, it was able to reclaim the 9, 21 and 55-day EMA – a sign of strength. Now that these 3 exponential moving averages have begun curling up, it’s likely to act as support moving forward. Pullbacks to these EMAs are buying opportunities, with stop loss under the September 11th lows at $24.9k (defensive stop-loss) or under the September 26th lows at $26k (aggressive stop-loss). A break above the 200-day SMA is only a matter of time, given the underlying strength building. But the real challenge lies around the $28.4k - $28.7k resistance zone. Reclaim that and $30k is next, another major resistance.
Basing Structure Fractal
Bitcoin is notoriously famous for repeating fractal patterns from the past, and it’s done it once again! The current basing structure between mid-Aug to late-September is reminiscent of the basing structure seen in Summer 2021. Not only are the basing structures similar, but in both instances, there was a strong bullish RSI divergence forming on the daily frame.
In terms of the basing structure itself, the current structure followed Summer 2021’s structure very closely. The black line is the fractal from Summer 2021 (adjusted in size). The main point to note here is the sharp rise and declines within the basing structure occurred in nearly the same sequence. Even the “Trapping Bull” and “Trapping Bear” phases occurred right on schedule.
Back in Summer 2021, a big rally to all-time highs at $69k is what followed. While this time around, we might not directly hit all-time highs, the similarity in the basing structure provides further confluence for the odds to be stacked in favor of the upside.
Cycles Edge Special
Multiple cycles have aligned for Bitcoin for October and November, showing significant upside probability. Cycles help in finding periods of time for an asset that have a high probability to move in a particular direction. In the current scenario, all major cycles point to upside, including the Cycles Composite (blue line – our secret sauce!). We’ll have more basic information on the major cycles in an upcoming educational piece, but for now the main takeaway to remember is: Bitcoin’s favorable time has started in October and remains intact until November end!
The key to any harmonious trading service is to help its followers Make Money. Cycles Edge is here to do just that. If you would like us to include On-chain data as well, please let us know in the comments below. Until next time!