Options Expiration and VIX Expiration Volatility Coming Up - Quick Note
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Options Expiration Day is Friday 5/16/25 and VIX Expiration is Wednesday 5/21/25 and these two days may create short-term volatility.
The 5/16/25 Options Expiration date for the S&P 500 (SPY) has a Max Pain options level of $550, and that is where market makers would make the most profit. There is also a Put Wall at $555, making this level a potential downside target for this upcoming Friday.
The 5/21/25 VIX Expiration date has a Max Pain of $565, making this a possible target for the following Wednesday. There is also a Put Wall at 560, so Market Makers would profit from closing the SPY above this level.
The SPY has been hovering around the $560 level, which makes sense since this area aligns with the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC)—a level that often acts like a magnet for price. While it remains in an uptrend above the 9 and 21 EMAs, it currently lacks the momentum to break above the 200 SMA (purple) at $573.27. A dip to the $550 area—or nearby—would make sense, as it would test a confluence of support: the Anchored VWAP from the February high (black), the 21 EMA (yellow), the uptrend line (green) and the aforementioned Max Pain level. This zone may also attract dip-buyers who missed the April rally.
The SPY chart below shows additional support confluence around the $550 level. A pullback to this area would represent a 23% Fibonacci retracement and a retest of the 4/21/25 AVWAP (pink). Looking at the gray Bollinger Bands, price is pulling back from the upper band, suggesting a move toward the Bollinger Band Midpoint (20 SMA) at $547 is possible. Altogether, the $550 area appears to be a strong support zone.
In the Premium Section, we’ll cover: 1) signals from our Market Timer model; and 2) insights from the VIX Term Structure.
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