President Biden Drops Out - Quick Note

President Biden is pulling out of the 2024 US Presidential Election and is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Harris still has to go through the process of getting officially nominated by the Democratic National Party, however with endorsements from Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, she favored to be nominated.

How does this affect the stock market? The strong performance in the stock market in 2024 could have been attributed to “Sitting President Running” Election Year Seasonal Pattern in green below (from Stock Traders Almanac). This makes sense as markets hate uncertainty. With Biden dropping out, the market may follow the “Open Field” pattern in red below. This could lead to significantly more uncertainty and volatility, especially in September and October. Furthermore the Open Field pattern seems to double bottom in late October and late November and only begins to rally in late November.

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