The Big Rotation Has Begun
Note: We’ve had a big influx of members, which is why we’re re-sending this article to make sure our new members understand where we are in the Commodity complex.
This chart highlights one of the most important dynamics in the Commodities market - they move in long, multi-year cycles.
What stands out is what happens before these major commodity upcycles begin.
Every sustained rally has been preceded by long periods of weak performance, where commodity prices remain depressed, capital exits the space, and investment in new supply dries up.
Today, we appear to be at the early stages of another structural Commodity upswing, coming out of a decade of underinvestment following the 2011 peak.
Years of low prices led to reduced capex, depleted inventories, and tightening supply across Commodities.
What the market is still underappreciating is that these cycles have historically persisted for a minimum of 10 years or more.
In fact, there’s a typical 30-year cycle that’s existed in Commodities, wherein the asset class outperforms for 15 years followed by stocks outperforming for the next 15 years, and then back to Commodities.
So, leadership changes roughly every 15 years.
Commodities usually dominate during inflationary, supply-constrained environments, while equities lead during disinflationary, liquidity-driven expansions.
The last cycle from 2008 to 2023 overwhelmingly favored stocks, driven by falling inflation, low interest rates, and abundant liquidity.
That environment is now changing.
We are in a new window from 2023 to 2038 that history suggests should see Commodities outperform.
And capital has already begun to rotate toward real assets, with Gold’s performance since 2023 being a prime example.
This is where the opportunity becomes very clear.
The Commodities-to-Equities ratio is currently sitting near one of the lowest levels in history.
Every time this ratio has reached similar extremes, it has marked the beginning of a major commodity outperformance cycle.
We saw this in the early 1970s, just before the inflation-driven commodity boom.
And again in the late 1990s, right before the 2000s supercycle.
In both cases, Commodities were deeply out of favor, capital had been pulled out of the space, and valuations were compressed - the same setup we have today.
If this ratio were to revert to just the average level since the early 1970s (around 4), it would see Commodities outperform by almost 7x.
And a move back to the highs would see Commodities outperform by almost 14x.
We’re already beginning to see a shift in Commodity-linked equity markets.
Brazil ($EWZ), one of the most commodity-sensitive markets globally, is starting to show signs of life again.
This was an area of the global market that saw a 1,800% rise during the 2000s commodity cycle.
What’s notable is how closely it tracks Platinum, with the metal historically leading major moves in Brazilian equities.
Today, Platinum has already broken higher, while Brazil remains relatively early.
If this relationship holds, it suggests Brazil has significant room to catch up as the Commodity cycle gains momentum.
But remember, Brazil is just one of the equity markets that are heavy on Commodities, with other options like Canada and Australia too.
Furthermore, despite the early signs of a Commodity upcycle, allocations to Commodity ETFs still remain near multi-year lows.
At the peak of the last cycle in 2011, Commodities made up over 10% of ETF assets.
Today, that figure is closer to 3%.
In other words, capital has not meaningfully rotated yet.
This is what an early-cycle Commodity environment typically looks like.
This means there’s still a LOT of room for capital to flow back into Commodities, creating a generational wealth-making opportunity for us investors and traders.
But here’s the problem.
Most investors have no idea how to position for a Commodity cycle.
For the past decade, Commodities have not been a “hot” area of the market.
There’s been very little incentive to study how this space works, how capital rotates within it, or where the real opportunities tend to emerge.
As a result, when a cycle like this begins, most investors are completely unprepared.
So, even if they get the big picture right, they still miss the life-changing gains.
The worst part is there has not been a clear, structured resource that breaks all of this down into a simple, actionable framework.
Something that allows investors to understand the cycle, identify opportunities early, and act on them without wasting years figuring it out themselves.
That’s exactly why we created what we call “The Commodity Cycle Masterplan”.
The Commodity Cycle Masterplan
This Masterplan is designed to give you both the big picture understanding and the specific tools needed to help you profitably navigate this cycle.
It breaks down the entire Commodity landscape into a step-by-step frameworkthrough 5 detailed documents:
A clear blueprint of how Commodity cycles unfold, and in what sequence capital rotates across different Commodities
A 3-year proprietary Cycle Forecasts across key commodities to help you gain a Timing Edge
A complete Commodity ETFs guide, covering 33 Commodity ETFs in-depthacross the entire Commodity spectrum, along with the key technical levels and our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for each one
A curated list of 33 high-quality Commodity stocks (for different Commodities), with detailed breakdowns of drivers, risks, and technical levels
A comprehensive “Masterlist” of 200+ names, giving you a full pipeline of ideas for investing and trading across precious metals, industrial metals, energy, agriculture, and more.
Basically, we’ve built a practical system designed to help you identify, track, and act on opportunities for this Commodity cycle.
This resource is designed to ensure that you’re able to quickly adapt to this new Market Regime, without having to spend hundreds of hours starting from scratch.
Our goal is to make this available at an affordable price point, so that we can help as many people as possible to Make Money in this Commodity Bull Cycle.
If you’re interested, you can purchase The Commodity Cycle Masterplan for $500 here OR upgrade your Substack plan to our $800 Founding Member tier to receive it as part of the membership.
BONUS: For the first 25 purchases, we’ll also throw in our yearly Cycles Edge membership worth $350 to further sweeten the deal for you. After your purchase, you’ll also have email access to our team for any follow-up questions you have after going through The Commodity Cycle Masterplan.
Disclaimer - All materials, information, and ideas from Cycles Edge are for educational purposes only and should not be considered Financial Advice. This blog may document actions done by the owners/writers of this blog, thus it should be assumed that positions are likely taken. If this is an issue, please discontinue reading. Cycles Edge takes no responsibility for possible losses, as markets can be volatile and unpredictable, leading to constantly changing opinions or forecasts.