The Commodity Cycle Has Begun
30-Year Commodity Cycle
Over the past 90 years, stocks have outperformed commodities by roughly 4-to-1.
But we’re now getting glimpses of the commodity markets waking up (think Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper).
A unique long-term cycle suggests that investors and traders should open their minds to the possibility of taking a closer look at commodities, particularly over the next 15 years.
Before presenting the data, let's just put the underlying idea on the table:
There is a 30-year cycle in the commodities markets
During the first 15 years, commodities perform significantly better on an absolute basis and significantly outperform the stock market on a relative basis
During the second 15 years, commodities perform nowhere near as well on an absolute basis and significantly underperform the stock market on a relative basis
Looking at the past 90 years of stock and commodity performance, the cycle works like this:
Starting on June 30th, 1933, performance favored commodities for the next 15 years and then stocks during the 15 years after that.
The pattern and period dates are shown in the next table.
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