The Risk-Reward Setup For Tech Sector
Smart Money vs. Retail Investors
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The Tech sector has been on a tear.
As the chart below shows, the 2025 trend (red line), driven by the AI wave, has broken the “slow rally” pattern of the historical average (blue line).
Coincidentally, the historical average (blue line) indicates October and November are typically the sector’s strongest “traditional peak season” of the year.
This combination of the “AI narrative” and “year-end peak season” gives bulls reason to bet on tech’s future growth.
Retail (speculative) sentiment confirms this confidence.
Rydex Technology Assets have stayed at a relatively high level over the past year.
Retail funds haven’t fled amid “high-valuation fears”-instead, they’re still “all-in”.
In contrast to retail optimism, however, “smart money” is sounding some alarms that we need to weigh to ensure our position sizing is correct.
That’s exactly what we’ll cover in the next section.
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