The State Of The Crypto Market (Part 1) – Crypto Piece
Time Capitulation Ongoing
Bitcoin is currently in a classic time capitulation. While price is ranging between $59.7k and $72.3k since March, a lot of people have capitulation (at least on Twitter) and some are even calling for a cycle top. We’re definitely not of that opinion. This range looks similar to the one that happened in the beginning of this year, but has been going on for longer. However, once this range is broken (to the upside is what we believe), the move should be pretty quick and aggressive.
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour time frame. If this confirms and if Bitcoin is able to reclaim $67.2k as support, then that would open the door for price to move back to the range highs around $72.3k at least. Moreover, we don’t think it’s there’s much time left now before Bitcoin breaks out of this range. Q3 2024 is beginning to look very promising for the crypto market!
Ethereum
Ethereum had a solid runup after breaking out of the short-term downtrend line. However, it found resistance around the $3991 resistance level, as we anticipated, and has now pullback to the support zone between $3300 to $3550. We believe this support zone should hold, but IF it doesn’t then the next support comes in around $2850.
Similar to Bitcoin, even Ethereum has formed a bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour timeframe. Moreover, the MACD has crossed and remained bullish with a recent bullish bounce. The key level for ETH to reclaim is $3643, which would also put it back above the support zone highlighted in the previous chart.
Intermarket Dynamic
A key asset to watch right now is USD ($DXY), which tried to breakout of the range high level at 105.63 on Friday, but sellers stepped in just in time to create a sizeable wick. Next week should be crucial because if $DXY gets rejected here, then it should act as a tailwind for the crypto market.
Now it’s time to look at our proprietary Cycles Forecast for Bitcoin to see what to expect until July. That’s exactly what we’ll cover in the next section for our Paid Members. We’ll also take a look at liquidity to better understand the money supply that can support the crypto markets. Lastly, we’ll analyze the ETH/BTC ratio to help us understand the state and potential of the altcoin market.
But that’s not all. This is just Part 1. In the Follow Up Part 2 Piece, we’ll look at key crypto-related stocks and also have our Cycles Forecast for a few of them. The ones that we’ll analyze are: CleanSpark ($CLSK), Marathon Digital ($MARA), Bitfarms ($BITF), and Coinbase ($COIN). Next week, we’ll then take a look at the altcoin market because they’re sending out a very important signal that’s setting the base for a lot of potential Money to be made.