Value Zone Approaching - Crypto Piece
What Investors Are Missing About The 4-Year Cycle
Note: This article was written before Bitcoin’s bounce that’s being seen today, but the levels mentioned and overall analysis is still very applicable.
As you already know, a big war has broken out in the Middle East… but one look at the Bitcoin chart and you wouldn’t have guessed that by any means.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate right below the $74k level, with a bearish Supertrend that’s been in place since Oct 2025 (except briefly flipping bullish in Jan 2026).
A bounce from here to test the $74k level looks quite likely and if that level is flipped back to support, then the $88k to $91.5k region could be in play.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin rejects at $74k, then $53k could come into play and if price fell down there, it would almost certainly create a daily bullish RSI divergence.
We’ll cover the more longer-term outlook for Bitcoin later in this article.
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum has also been consolidating below the $2.1k level, with a bearish Supertrend.
Reclaiming $2,130 would put $2,400k in play (and potentially even $2,800), whereas, rejecting from $2,130 could put $1,550 on the table (very likely forming a bullish RSI divergence).
One reason we don’t think the broader correction is completely over yet is to with this chart showing the stablecoin dominance (for USDT and USDC).
When this chart goes up, it means investors are shifting out from Cryptos to stablecoin and when it goes down, it means the opposite.
Stablecoin dominance has broken a couple of key resistances after forming a rounding bottom type of base.
While a pullback on this chart is very much possible (coinciding with a bounce in the Crypto market), we think that stablecoin dominance could reach closer to the previous highs around 15%.
However, from a higher level view, we’re of the opinion that the macro backdrop is setting the stage for Ethereum to eventually significantly outperform Bitcoin.
For that, we can look at the institution behind America’s money printing endeavors —> Federal Reserve.
The blue line in the chart below shows the Fed’s balance sheet.
Back in 2019, when the Fed pivoted from contracting their balance sheet to gradually (and then rapidly) expanding it, the transition marked the turning point for the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio.
After that the ratio did make a higher low before starting to ramp up, indicating that Ethereum was outperforming Bitcoin.
Recently, the Fed has again pivoted from contracting its balance sheet to gradually expanding it (what they are calling Reserve Management Purchases).
It seems like the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio is now working on its lower high phase before potentially resuming higher like last time.
Even from a fundamental standpoint, the activity on Ethereum is still at levels higher unseen between 2015 to 2025.
So the use case for the Ethereum blockchain is definitely growing in adoption, while price is not truly reflecting it yet because Bitcoin’s weakness is extending to the broader Crypto market.
Now bears might argue that based on the well-known “4-year Cycle” for Bitcoin, we’re only about halfway through the correction and there’s still 30 odd weeks left before Bitcoin actually bottoms.
But we think that these bears are missing an essential factor while approaching the 4-year cycle for Bitcoin.
That’s exactly what we’ll cover next, along with giving you the long-term buying level for Bitcoin and our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for Bitcoin.
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