Introduction to Cycles Edge

Our Mission:

Our goal is to help people Make Money in the markets using Cycles, Seasonality, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, and Macro. We take a "Use What Works" approach to provide a Timing Edge in the Financial Markets.

Who We Are:

S from Cycles Edge, Investment Strategist and Founder

My passion and focus are on making money through the financial markets. In the past, I was an Investment Banker working 80 hours a week. I was good in finance but didn’t like the hours, so I wanted to find a way to use my knowledge to make a living off the financial markets. I noticed that timing was the most important factor in being profitable in the stock market. Seeking answers, I went to business school, but unfortunately, all my finance professors said that there was no way to time the financial markets. Disappointed, I drank the Kool-Aid and became a Financial Advisor and Portfolio Manager. As I was managing money for my clients, I began a multi-year path of learning what worked in actually making money and what sounded good but was ineffective. I found that cycles and seasonality do affect investor behavior. I also learned that holding a high-risk portfolio during a sharp downtrend believing that “no one can time the market” and suffering a sizable drawdown is not acceptable in my book. I put some of my newly acquired techniques to the test in the 2020 US Investing Championship, and I placed 13th with a return of 53%. After this, I set out to develop a system that makes money in the markets when conditions are right and protects capital when conditions are wrong.

Using everything I’ve learned as an Investment Banker, a Financial Advisor, a Portfolio Manager, a Macro Strategist, an MBA in Finance, and a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA, not currently active), I created a system that combines Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Macro, Risk Management, Seasonality, and Cycles. I believe that all these factors are important, however, seasonality and cycles provide a timing edge. I am looking to build a community of people who believe that markets could be timed and intend to make money using this knowledge.

V from Cycles Edge, Crypto and Commodities Strategist

I began my investment journey through cryptos in late 2016 as an amateur and first-handedly experienced the rush of the 2017 run-up. It felt like I was unstoppable, even though I didn’t know any basics about the market at the time (overconfidence at its best!). My portfolio was up more than 4x but greed got the best of me. The 2018 crypto bear market was my worst enemy, and the emotional trading landed me from a 4x profit to a 95% loss (devastating times!). I quit crypto in early 2019 only to come back to it later that year after thinking to myself “If crypto is what made me lose more than 95%, it’s probably the asset class that can make me recover it as well”. I spent the next few years studying Technical Analysis, On-chain Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Macro, and most importantly Investor Psychology to set the foundation necessary to NEVER repeat my 2018 impulses. This journey hasn’t been easy, especially with the degree of volatility crypto has to offer. But in the end, mastering this volatility with a disciplined system and a balanced mind makes every step of the way worth it!

My background in Commodities comes from working as a Technical Analyst in a Natural Resources Hedge Fund, which invested in all commodities except Energy. We researched Energy from a Macro standpoint, since Energy is a critical component of every economy, but invested in all other commodities. While the Hedge Fund industry is intense to say the least, it’s taught me one key lesson - There’s Always An Opportunity Somewhere In The Market!

At Cycles Edge, my goal is to help our subscribers Make Money in Cryptos and Commodities. This will be done through concise and simple text, easy-to-understand charts, and key price levels for actionability. The articles will also provide simple yet effective indicators that our subscribers can implement in their strategy to level up their game. Cycles Edge is also going to bring in a set of indicators that we call our “Secret Sauce”, which will provide our subscribers with an edge that hopefully leads to Alpha for our subscribers’ portfolios. Happy to be on this journey to abundance together!

Our Process:

• Coverage: We cover the major indexes, ETFs, widely followed stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and educational material for Financial Markets.

• Conditions: For investments to appreciate, the right conditions need to be in place. Macro, Intermarket Analysis, and Market Internals (breadth, sentiment, volatility) provide a good understanding of the conditions that affect investment behavior.

• Timing: Cycles, seasonality, and technical analysis combine well to provide a timing edge.

  • Cycles- We look at a number of time cycles. Based on these cycles we’ve crafted our proprietary Cycles Composite and Energy Cycle, which we see as part of our “Secret Sauce.”

  • Seasonality - We look at the 1-year or Seasonal Cycle. We also look at strong and weak months of the year and seasonal institutional behavior to analyze the market.

  • Technical Analysis - Trend-following using moving averages, using oscillators and other technical indicators to gauge momentum, spot divergences and overbought/oversold conditions is part of our core analysis. Combined with Cycles, we find that technical analysis is useful in understanding probable next moves and in managing trades.