Gold And Silver On Borrowed Time – Commodity Piece
Pullback Around The Corner
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The global economic policy uncertainty index has just spiked to the highest levels ever seen on this index since late-1990s.
This has primarily been caused by Trump’s indecisiveness around tariffs.
When people panic, one of the first go to assets is usually Gold and that is clearly evident by looking at the rapid rise that Gold has seen in the past couple of months.
In our last Gold update, we had mentioned that if Gold continues riding the upward momentum, the $3200 region would be the next upside area of interest (found here).
Below is what we had exactly written:
Fast forward to today, and Gold has indeed continued riding the upward momentum, largely fueled by the uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.
However, complacency has started to build on Gold (as we’ll see later in the article), indicating to us that we might be nearing a pullback or at least a prolonged consolidation period again.
Gold can still work its way to the $3200 target we had laid out, but we wouldn’t expect it to continue much higher without resetting the extreme bullishness that’s built up on it.
One catalyst that could cause Gold to show some weakness would be Trump’s tariff announcement on 2nd April because that could cause uncertainty to fall once the market is sure of what his tariff plans are (as far as Trump is sure of what his plans are to begin with!)
Silver Analysis
Silver, on the other hand, still looking quite good as it works its way up to the $35.11 resistance level.
The technicals are still healthy, so there’s definitely enough fuel to reach that resistance.
In fact, a typical aggressive move by Silver could also see this precious metal run-up quickly to the $37.3 - $38.8 resistance level, but that’s the most bullish outcome we see in the near-term.
But the amount of time left to do that kind of a move is ticking down fast (as we’ll see through our proprietary Cycle Forecasts later in this article).
On the downside, there’s support at $32.6 that is critical to hold because below that we could see prices fall down to the $28.84 support level.
For the latter to happen though, we’d likely need to see a fair bit of weakness in Gold too, and if that happens, it would present a solid buying opportunity for Silver and also Gold, both of which we’re still very bullish on in the mid to long-term.
Sentiment (Optix) On Gold And Silver
Looking at Gold’s sentiment indicator (using the 50-day MA to smooth it out), we can see that it has gotten quite bullish.
This has typically occurred around short-term pullbacks or consolidation phases.
Even Gold’s technical picture is pointing for such an outcome to be around the corner (we’ll soon see what our Cycle Forecasts says for it – Gold investors will definitely want to see this!
On the other hand, Silver’s sentiment, while bullish, hasn’t reached those extreme bullish conditions yet.
So, Silver could still see more upside before the sentiment around it reaches more extreme levels that have usually led to short-term corrections/consolidations.
In the next section, we’ll take a look at:
1) Gold’s volatility index to be able to anticipate when the trend is going to change
2) Our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for Gold and Silver (for April) to provide you a Timing Edge – Trust me, you’re going to want to be prepared for what it’s forecasting right now!
3) Looking at Gold Miners and the Trade around it
4) Analyzing Silver Miners and the Trade setup for it
NOTE: We’ve officially released our Q2 2025 Cycle Forecasts for sale to everyone. This is done with only 1 goal in mind: Secure a Timing Edge to Make Money! Find all details about our Cycle Forecasts here.
Given how choppy and expensive the US stock market is getting, we’ve also introduced our new “Global Markets Cycle Forecasts”. This contains the Forecasts for 10 international stock markets (for developed and emerging economies). It’s meant to help Time your diversification bets better. Access all our Cycle Forecasts here.
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