Gold Hits New ATH – Commodity Piece
Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, And Natural Gas
Gold has just hit new ATH, Silver is recovering, Copper bounced at the key support zone, Oil is nearing support, and Natural Gas has had a good run. There’s a lot going on in these 5 key Commodities, which we will unpack in this article. We’ve left out Uranium from this mix because the next Commodity Piece will be purely dedicated to Uranium, Uranium Miners and individual Uranium stocks. Let’s dive in!
Gold Technicals
Friday was a big day for Gold as it finally closed above the upward sloping resistance line, alongside hitting new ATHs. The daily RSI has quite a bit of room to run-up, the daily MACD is still bullish and above the 0 line, and the 9, 21, and 55-daily EMAs are all providing support while sloping up. The picture couldn’t look better for Gold right now.
The key next week is to stay above the upward sloping resistance that was just broken and especially stay above the consolidation range (orange box). If this can be done, then the next stop is $2575 – a target we’ve highlighted multiple months ago. But IF Gold closes back in the consolidation range then all bets are off and we’ll be quick to switch our bullish bias.
The reason we highlighted the $2575 level for multiple months is because that is the target of the inverted head and shoulders pattern that Gold broke out of in March 2024. Can Gold go higher? Of course. But once the $2575 target is met then we’ll re-evaluate the next potential move and price level of interest.
Silver Technicals
Silver, on the other hand, wasn’t able to mimic Gold’s strength in the past few weeks. It broke below the critical support level of $28.84, which made the pullback deeper. However, Silver managed to reclaim the $28.84 level on Friday finally! It is still too early to celebrate because confirmation is key after such a reclaim. But, if Silver is able to hold the $28.84 level as support next week, then a higher high is very likely in the making next.
Thursday and Friday’s price action does look quite convincing though. Silver reclaimed the 9, 21, and 55-daily EMAs, with a reset daily RSI and a fresh bullish cross on the daily MACD. Just got to wait for confirmation next week and then our $35 target comes back on the table.
Copper Technicals
Copper has quite a sharp pullback of almost 25% since mid-May 2024. It did reach quite a critical level – its support zone between $3.92 to $4.02. This was a key region to hold in order to avoid breaking the bullish structure and the bulls stepped in right on time to save the day.
Now, Copper’s daily RSI is reset, daily MACD has a fresh bullish cross, and price is trying to reclaim the $4.14 minor support. However, the main level for Copper to reclaim is the $4.35 support because that would truly signal a bullish reversal instead of just a back test of the previous breakdown region.
Given that Copper held the support zone between $3.92 to $4.02, we’re confident that a global recession (like many feared earlier this month) is not here yet. In fact, even just a US recession is not here yet as you see a cool down in initial claims data from this Thursday’s data and the yield curve continuing to be inverted.
We’re closely watching key Macro data to time a recession, but we definitely don’t want to be early to the recession party because that party has kept a lot of smart economists and analysts waiting.
Oil Technicals
Oil has a deviation below its uptrend line only to then come back in it. Price is now coming back to test this support again (around $74.5) and if it holds, that would present an attractive buying opportunity for a move back to the downtrend line (around $81.50). However, if price breaks this support again, that would very likely lead to a move down to $69.4 support level. Wait for the support to hold then initiate a position, don’t try to front-run it because that hasn’t worked out well for us in the past (on most occasions).
Natural Gas Technicals
Natural Gas has played out exactly how we outlined in our last Commodity Piece (found here). It did one last dip lower to test the downtrend line as support (around $1.90) and then had a solid bounce up, reaching as high as $2.375. Some of our paid members caught this entire +20%.
Now that price has reclaimed the support level of $2.125, it is coming back to retest it. If it holds and is able to break past $2.24, then there’s quite a big move coming up for Natural Gas that could see $3.05 get hit. However, IF price fails to hold the $2.125 support level, then $2.02 - $2.03 is very likely to be reached. Which level is in play ($3.05 OR $2.02) will depend on if price is able to hold $2.125 as support on a daily closing basis.
But what about the intermarket dynamics? Do they confirm some of the above moves like Gold and Silver rising? That’s exactly what we’ll take a look at in the Premium Section for paid members. We’ll also go over the Silver/Gold ratio to get a bias on which one is likely to outperform and by how much. Lastly, we’ll cover our proprietary Cycles Forecast for these key Commodities, so that we’re positioning ourselves in the direction of the tide instead of fighting against it.