Oil, Natural Gas, And Uranium – Commodity Piece
Energy Has Been Under Pressure | Natural Gas Trade
In our last Oil, Natural Gas and Uranium update (found here), we had mentioned the reasons for why it made sense on the sidelines for Oil and Natural Gas. That has paid off as we were able to avoid the recent drawdown on both the assets. Uranium did catch us a little off-guard though. This is an update on all 3 assets.
Oil Technicals
Our members have been on the right side of Oil for quite a while. We were able to catch the bounce after a test of the contracting triangle support line in early-June 2024 (article found here) for a +11% move up to the $83.47 resistance. Then, we were able to wait on the sidelines when price was at resistance until a decision was made (break above resistance OR false breakout above contracting triangle) (article found here)
Now, Oil has shown its hand by closing back in the contracting triangle and confirming a false breakout. Since then we’ve patiently waited for Oil to come back to the contracting triangle support, which is currently around $74 (and increasing by the day because of its up-slope). Finally, Oil is just about $1 away from this.
For now, we’ll wait for Oil’s reaction upon touching the contracting triangle support. IF Oil is able to hold this support, then we’ll look to take a long position. But IF Oil breaks below it, then $69.40 support level would be at play.
For those looking to get access to much more real-time analysis and have their questions addressed in a quick fashion, consider upgrading your membership to the Founding Member tier. This tier has access to our Discord Server (details can be found here), where we provide not only real-time market analysis, but also more Trade Setups, Intermarket and Macro charts, and Cycle Forecasts for a variety of assets.
For instance, one of our Founding Members had asked about Oil on 23rd July and was able to avoid the continued drawdown between then and now. We hope to see and interact with more of you in our Discord Server!
Natural Gas Technicals
Natural Gas has been on quite a continuous downtrend (-36.92%) since mid-June after the daily bearish RSI divergence (highlighted in an article found here). Price ended up breaking below the $2.125 support level. However, while doing so it caused a daily bullish RSI divergence, which is a sign of underlying strength.
Usually, when price is breaking below support, you don’t want to see such underlying strength because that often signals a false breakdown. That is what we think is happening on Natural Gas right now.
There is a possibility that price does do one more dip lower to retest the downtrend line as support (around $1.90), but we won’t count on that because a lot of people are eyeing that line. Usually when a lot of eyes are watching a particular level, price either gets front-run above that level or ends up going below that level to scare people before reversing back. In this case, the former seems more likely to us.
For those trying to trade Natural Gas, the upcoming section will show you how we think one can best approach it.
In the next section (only for Paid Members), we’re going to expand on our strategy for trading Natural Gas here. Then we’ll dive into the technical picture for Uranium. Lastly, we’ll cover our proprietary Cycles Forecast for Oil, Natural Gas and Uranium for the month of August, so that our members have a better sense of the directional bias for the upcoming month.