Greedy for the Holidays - Market Update

The Thanksgiving Rally is here and it is beginning on time! Our subscribers were prepared as we tipped them off here and here.

And just in time for the holidays it seems like everyone is feeling greedy once again. Notice how the Fear & Greed Model is spiking higher. Better yet, it is not yet at the extreme level, so there is more to go.

Breadth recovered as we expected. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line($NYAD) is now making a high above the previous high, which is a bullish sign. With MACD making a double bottom and a bullish crossover, a strong breadth thrust is possible.

The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up today, but experienced some profit-taking after it ran into resistance at the previous high around $600. This bullish oscillation has a lot of gas left in the tank as the Slow Stochastics and RSI are not yet in overbought territory. Moreover the MACD indicator just fired off a bullish crossover signal, telling us that upside momentum may just be beginning. The Primary Cycle Bracket tells us that this cycle is still young, and although it may have bullish and bearish oscillations, we expect it to be overall positive until 2/10/2025, when the cycle bracket hits the 2/3rds mark. This may be a time when a more significant pullback is possible. A reasonable near-term price target for the SPY is the Upper Bollinger Band at $607.51.

We do see some warning signs that tell us to stay tactical going into December.

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