The Bullish Quarter Is Here – Crypto Piece
Q4 Is When Bitcoin Hits New ATHs
Note: We’ve now released our Q4 2024 Cycle Forecasts for sale to everybody. You can read more about these Forecasts here. Access all different asset Forecasts at www.cyclesedge.com. Our Founding Members have already been emailed the entire set. If you’re a Founding Member and haven’t received the Q4 2024 Cycle Forecasts, please reach out to us via Substack or Discord (preferable).
Bitcoin Preparing For New ATHs
Consensus is often wrong and that was clearly seen through September and the beginning of October.
While many believed Bitcoin would see significant downside in September, it ended up closing in the green. Whereas, many believed October to be bullish right from the start, but this month started with downside instead.
Does that mean that October will be bearish?
Not so fast, as we’ll show you later in this article by looking at Bitcoin’s statistical data for October.
Shifting focus to the technical picture, the key support level we’re watching is $57.4k in case of a deeper pullback. On the upside, a daily close at or above $69.5k would signal a breakout above the downtrend line.
The data we’re looking at strongly indicates that new Bitcoin ATHs is a matter of “when” rather than “if” and our bet is on Q4 2024 for that to happen.
On-Chain And Liquidity Favor New ATHs
Why do we believe that Bitcoin bull cycle top is not in?
Here’s one key reason (among many). The chart below is the Pi Cycle Top indicator. It has historically been effective in picking out the timing of Bitcoin bull cycle highs within 3 days.
This uses the 111-day MA and the 350-day MA multiplied by 2.
Since 2012, when the 111-day MA crosses above the 350-day MA x 2, Bitcoin has put in its cycle top.
The Pi Cycle top has not flashed a topping signal indicating, indicating that Bitcoin still has more upside left. There’s also the Mayer Multiple (highlighted here), which also points to more upside.
Liquidity is another key factor for Bitcoin. Regions of high liquidity typically acts like a price magnet. This is also in the best interest of Market Makers (for liquidation money).
Currently, the highest level of liquidity lies around $71-$73k to the upside and around $34-$35k to the downside.
Based on technicals, on-chain, intermarket, and sentiment, upside is significantly more likely. Therefore, our bet is that the upper region of liquidity gets taken out first.
Bitcoin’s Turning Point
Today is the 5th of October. Why is that important?
There’s been a very peculiar pattern since June 2024. Bitcoin has seen its turning points around the 5th of the month in the last 4 months.
Of course this isn’t a foolproof data point. But if the technicals start to flip bullish in the coming days, then that would make perfect sense with the 4-month turning point trend we’ve seen. This would also align with our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for Bitcoin and October’s statistical data (covered later in this article).
What About Ethereum?
Alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum is also looking promising.
Firstly, a lot of investors have now given up hope on Ethereum, this means that the weak hands are washed out and consensus isn’t a concern right now.
But, even from a technical standpoint, Ethereum has been slowing flipping the script in favor of the bulls. Here’s why:
1) Long-term uptrend support line (since Nov 2022) has been maintained
2) Daily bullish RSI divergence has printed (bullish reversal pattern)
3) RSI is maintaining its uptrend line for now (yes, you can run simple technicals on indicators that use price because they are not but a derivative of price)
4) Supertrend has switched from green to red (a bullish sign)
The 3 other signals that would really get upside momentum going are:
1) MACD (momentum) crosses bullish
2) Price reclaims daily 9, 21 and 55-EMAs ($2468, $2495, and $2583 respectively)
3) Price reclaims and converts $2825 resistance as support
In the Premium Section, we’ll highlight an inter-market chart that really solidifies the bullish case for Bitcoin. We’ll also take a quick look at how Bitcoin performs during election years (since 2024 falls under this criteria).
Then, we’ll show our proprietary Cycle Forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum to get a timing Edge this month. Lastly, we’ll go through important October statistical data for Bitcoin to help estimate the expected crypto market performance this month.
Find our membership cost/benefits below. If you’re serious about Making Money (our primary goal at Cycles Edge), then the Premium Sections are key for you!
